金融危机的原因和后果:我们学到了什么?

Causes and Consequences:What Have We Learned from Financial Crises?

金融危机频繁发生,每次金融危机都会带来重大和长期的不良后果。通过对过去一百多年全球金融数据的最新文献研究,本文认为私人信贷增长是预测金融危机的最佳指标。与正常经济衰退相比,金融危机后的经济衰退代价更高,持续时间更久。当信贷繁荣与资产价格泡沫叠加在一起时,极有可能发生金融危机,经济恢复会变得更慢。本文讨论了金融危机前往往发生过度冒险行为的原因,总结了可供参考的经验教训。近期金融危机文献还提出了"平静危机"的概念,指出在不存在挤兑和恐慌的情况下,金融系统承压对实体经济带来的危害。国内信贷和全球化增长的双重减缓将在未来数年对中国经济形成严峻的考验。

Financial crises erupt frequently and whenever they do,they bring about major and long-lasting adverse consequences.In this article,we document the incidence of global financial crises,drawing on the latest literature research covering more than one century of financial history data.We highlight growth in private credit as the single best predictor for a financial crisis.Economic recessions,in the wake of a financial crisis,are more severe and output costs greater than in normal recessions.Crisis risks are particularly elevated and recoveries slower when credit booms are coupled with asset price bubbles.We also discuss why excessive risk-taking occurs before financial crises,and potential policy lessons for China.