超额节能指标政策的工业去产能效应

Effect of Above-Average Energy-Saving Targets on Overcapacity Reduction

为了在节能“攻坚战”中避免“一刀切”问题,中央政府在“十一五”规划中对不同省份设定了差异化的节能指标,超额节能指标的去产能效应有待准确评估。本文首先利用异质性随机前沿分析方法测算了工业企业层面的产能利用率,进而利用中央政府设定差异化节能指标这一准自然实验,采用双重差分模型评估了超额节能指标对工业企业产能利用率的影响效果。进一步地,本文识别了超额节能指标对产能利用率的影响机制以及不同企业特征和指标强度的异质性效果。研究发现,超额节能指标对产能利用率具有积极影响,这一结论在经过一系列的稳健性检验后被证实是可靠的;超额节能指标在生产侧与消费侧均对产能利用率产生积极影响,且该影响随着指标强度的提升而增加,这是因为该政策改善了全要素生产率并对过度投资产生了“降温”效应。因此,适当提高当前指标有助于实现节能与去产能的双赢。

In order to avoid the “one-size-fits-all” problem in the energy conservation drive, the central government set different energy-saving targets for different provincial-level regions in the 11 th Five-Year Plan. The effect of above-average energy-saving targets on overcapacity reduction needs to be accurately evaluated. In this paper, we calculate the capacity utilization of industrial enterprises by using the heterogeneous stochastic frontier model. Then, based on the quasi-natural experiment with the above-average energy-saving targets set by the central government, we adopt the difference-in-differences method to evaluate the effect of this policy on the capacity utilization. Further, we investigate the influencing mechanism and heterogeneous effect regarding target intensity and enterprise characteristics. The results show that: the above-average energy-saving targets exert a positive impact on capacity utilization, which is proved to be reliable after a series of robustness tests;and the above-average energy-saving targets improve the total factor productivity and reduce the investment scale, thereby exerting a positive impact on capacity utilization both on the production side and the consumption side. Therefore, properly raising the energy-saving targets can achieve a win-win situation for energy conservation and overcapacity reduction.