异质性投资协定及其对中外价值链关联的影响研究

Research on Heterogeneous Investment Agreement and Its Impact on the Linkage of Chinese and Foreign Value Chains

研究目标:基于投资协定异质性视角,研究中外双边投资协定对价值链关联的影响,同时考察协定代际变迁的转型升级效应,探讨投资规则代际升级对价值链循环的影响。研究方法:构建以中外投资协定条款内容"覆盖力"和"约束力"为核心的协定深度指标,采用双受限Tobit模型进行实证估计,并运用中介效应模型检验影响渠道。研究发现:中外投资协定显著促进了双边价值链关联,深度越深,促进效应越强,并且协定代际变迁提升了上述正向效应,在克服内生性问题后,该结论仍然稳健。中介机制研究发现,投资协定主要通过促进双向投资、提升研发创新能力与削减贸易政策不确定性三个渠道增强中外价值链关联。研究创新:系统评估出投资协定异质性指数,实证检验深度协定的动态及代际变迁效应,并考察了影响效应的中介渠道。研究价值:为推动中国新一轮投资谈判、加快形成国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供了现实依据。

Research Objectives:On the basis of evaluating the heterogeneity index of investment treaties between China and foreign countries,and considering the intergenerational change of Chinese investment status,this paper studies the influence of the heterogeneous investment treaties on the Sino-Foreign value chain linkages,and discuss the impact of BIT on the circulation of international value chains.Research Methods:Constructing a treaties depth index that uses the"covering power"and"binding power"of the provisions of Sino-foreign investment treaties as the core area of evaluation,adopts the dual-restricted Tobit model for empirical estimation,and uses the intermediary effect model to test the influence channels.Research Findings:Both BIT dummy variables and depth variables significantly promoted the bilateral value chain linkages,and the generational change in China enhanced the promotion effect.This conclusion remained stable after solving the endogenous problem.The mechanism research shows that the investment treaties improve the value chain linkages between China and foreign countries mainly have three channels:promoting mutual investment,enhancing R&D,and reducing the uncertainty of trade policy.Research Innovations:Evaluate the heterogeneity index of investment treaties,empirically examine the dynamics of depth treaties and the effects of intergenerational changes,and examine the intermediary channels that influence the effects.Research Value:This paper provides a practical basis for promoting the deep integration of China’s new round of investment agreements and international rules,and forming a new development pattern of mutual promotion of the value chain.