中国“雾霾”治理的政策效果与机制分析

Policy Effectevaluation and Mechanism Analysis of China’s“haze”governance

本文以“大气十条”政策实施为中国“雾霾”治理的准自然实验,使用2005-2017年中国107个地级及以上城市的面板数据集研究其政策机制,构建DID模型和PSM-DID模型检验其政策效应,检验结果认为“大气十条”政策实施显著降低了PM2.5年均浓度。监测数据显示,政策实施的2013-2017年,京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大重点区域取得了PM2.5平均浓度分别下降39.6%、34.3%、27.7%的惊人成效,提示了中国“雾霾”治理“跨越式发展”的可能性。本文进行了进一步机制检验分析,检验结果具有三点创新性的政策含义:(1)主张将精细化环境管理下沉到行业层面,并通过完善在环境领域市场机制建设,以促进环境治理技术创新;(2)“大气十条”的政策效果不是通过产业转移和结构调整而实现的,因而可以在全国范围推广;(3)中国经济发展与“雾霾”可以实现“脱钩”,从而促使环境经济“跨越式发展”,越过西方发达工业化国家较长的“雾霾”治理历史阶段。

This paper regards China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan(the"Action Plan")"Action Plan"as quasi natural experiments of China’s"haze"governance,uses panel data sets of 107 prefecture-level and above cities in China(2005-2017)to study its policy effects.Constructed a DID model and PSM-DID model.The test results show that the implementation of the"Action Plan"significantly reduces the average annual concentration of PM2.5.After further analysis,this paper proposes that:(1)The fine environmental management should be lowered to the industry level,and the market mechanism construction in the environmental field should be improved to promote the technological innovation of environmental governance;(2)Its policy effect is not achieved through industrial transfer and structural adjustment,so it can be promoted nationwide;(3)Combined with the success control of environmental pollution in China’s"two control areas"and the fact that"haze"in western developed industrialized countries is not serious,"haze"control does not depend on medium and long-term economic adjustment,but a comprehensive treatment measure characterized by direct environmental control.Therefore,economic development and"haze"can be"decoupled",thus promoting"leap forward development"of environmental economy and surpass the long historical stage of"haze"governance in western developed industrialized countries.