西格玛趋同视角下城乡居民消费结构演化的区制转移

The Regime Switching of Urban and Rural Residents’Consumption Structure Evolution from the Perspective of Sigma Convergence

构建非线性MS(M)-AR(p)模型对城乡居民消费结构西格玛趋同演化的区制转移过程与影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明,城乡居民消费结构的演化总体上具有西格玛趋同性,并且趋同性变化可以划分为“趋异区制”、“稳定区制”和“趋同区制”三种区制;多数消费支出在“趋同区制”下的变化强度大于“趋异区制”,具有非对称性;各项消费支出基本上逐步转向变化强度较小的“稳定区制”,并且总体上具有趋同性;各项消费支出的三种区制具有一定稳定性,并且区制间更可能发生相邻区制转移;不同区制间的转移受到消费倾向等因素影响。需要通过有效政策设计强化城乡居民消费趋同性,进一步释放居民消费潜力。

This paper constructs nonlinear MS(m)-AR(P)models to study the regime switching process and its influencing factors of urban and rural residents’consumption structure evolution.The evolution of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents has the characteristics of sigma convergence,and the convergence change has regime switching characteristics.The change intensity of most consumption expenditure under the"convergence regime"is greater than that of the"divergent regime",which is asymmetric.Most of the consumption expenditure has gradually turned to the"stable regime"with less intensity of change,and has convergence characteristics.The"divergence regime","stable regime"and"convergence regime"of each consumption expenditure are stable,and the adjacent regime switching is more likely to occur between different regimes.The switching between different regimes is affected by consumption tendency and other factors.It is necessary to improve the income level and consumption tendency of urban and rural residents,especially rural residents,through effective policy design,strengthen the consumption convergence of urban and rural residents,and further release the consumption potential of residents.