道路损毁下考虑供应中断的国民经济动员链供应模式选择

Supply Mode Choice of National Economy Mobilization Chain Considering Supply Interruption under the Condition of Road Damage

人为和自然灾害可能会给国民经济动员企业的物资供应任务造成冲击,若上游动员企业成员不能按计划完成原料供给、生产等任务,会影响甚至中断下游国民经济动员链成员的后续任务。本文首先从国民经济动员链的结构调整策略入手,以特大自然灾害造成道路损毁为背景,分别构建供给中断情形下单源供应和双源供应的动员链系统动力学模型,探索中断情形下最优的供应模式。结合汶川地震背景,通过单源供应与双源供应模型的仿真,比较各主体的订单累计量、库存量及期望效用等关键变量,揭示不同国民经济动员链供应模式对于应急救灾的效果差异,并分析山区因子和中断时长对双源供应模式下的动员链系统中关键变量的影响。研究结果表明:双源供应能使中断下的动员链各节点的库存、发货率及各环节的订单相较于无中断情况仅出现小幅度的波动,并保证执行主体的效用维持在一个相对稳定的水平。

Man-made and natural disasters may impact the material supply tasks of national economy mobilization enterprises.If the upstream mobilization enterprises cannot complete the tasks of raw material supply and production as planned,it will affect or even interrupt the follow-up tasks of the downstream mobilization chain members.This paper starts with the structural adjustment strategy of the national economy mobilization chain,and takes the road damage and supply interruption caused by catastrophic natural disasters as the background.Meanwhile,a system dynamics model under single-source supply and dual-source supply has been constructed to explore the optimal supply mode under disruption.Combined with the Wenchuan earthquake case,this paper compares the order accumulation,inventory and expected utility of each agent by the simulation of single-source supply model and dual-source supply model,and reveals the difference of the effect of two national economic mobilization chain supply modes on emergency relief.Additionally,the influence of mountain factors and interruption duration on key variables in the mobilization chain system under the dual source supply mode is analyzed.The research result shows that the dual-source supply can make the inventory,delivery rate and orders of each segment only fluctuate smoothly in the mobilization chain under disruption compared with the uninterrupted situation,and ensure that the utility of the execution subjects maintain at a relatively stable level.