战略性新兴产业前沿技术领域预测与合作潜力——基于主题相似网络关系的分析视角

Forecast and Cooperation Potential of Frontier Technology Fields of Strategic Emerging Industries——Based on the Perspective of Network Relationships with Smilar Topics

战略性新兴产业已经成为世界各国抢占新一轮经济制高点的发展重点,精准识别战略性新兴产业前沿技术领域,提升产业技术创新合作成功率是形成战略性新兴产业核心竞争力的重要手段。通过建立LDA-GS模型提取文本主题,设计主题相似网络关系建立方法,打破了技术创新网络仅建立在合作及IPC共现关系的局限。以石墨烯产业为实证分析对象,得出战略性新兴产业技术创新网络演化符合“单领域基础发展→新领域衍生发展→多领域分化发展”的规律;新兴前沿技术产生于成熟技术模块的技术临近区;战略性新兴产业技术创新网络集聚为利用式技术创新合作提供了基础,不同网络模块间的技术临近区为探索式技术创新合作创造了前提条件等结论。最后提出网络演化各阶段的政策建议与技术服务策略。

Strategic emerging industries have become the development focus for countries around the world to seize the commanding heights of a new round of economics.Accurately identifying the frontier technology fields of strategic emerging industries and increasing the success rate of industrial technological innovation cooperation are important means to form the core competitiveness of strategic emerging industries.The paper establishes an LDA-GS model to extract text topics and designs a method of establishing network relationships with similar topics,which breaks the limitation that the technological innovation network is only based on cooperation and IPC co-occurrence relationship.Taking the graphene industry as the empirical analysis object,the findings show that the evolution of the technological innovation network of strategic emerging industries conforms to the law of"basic development in single field→derivative development in new fields→differentiated development in multiple fields";emerging frontier technologies are produced in the technological proximity areas of mature technology modules;and the technological innovation network agglomeration of strategic emerging industries provides the foundation for utilitarian technological innovation cooperation,and the technological proximity areas among different network modules create preconditions for exploratory technological innovation cooperation.Finally,policy recommendations and technical service strategies for each stage of network evolution are proposed.