长江源区气温序列趋势变化及突变年份识别

Temperature sequence trend and identification of mutation year in the source region of the Yangtze River

对长江源区气温变化规律的研究,能为该地区气温变化政策的制定提供理论依据。文中以长江源区9个标志性的站点为研究对象,分析其1961-2019年的月均值、月均最高值和月均最低值气温走向,并且运用Spearman相关检验法、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性回归检验法和ArcGIS地图法对长江源区的气温走向进行趋势分析和突变年份的识别。结果表明:1961-2019年长江源区的气温为上升趋势,年均最高气温的倾向率最快,为1.28℃/10a,年均气温及年均最低气温无明显上升趋势,平稳波动。用Mann-Kendall检验法对长江源区的气温检测显示,最低气温和最高气温突变年份在1968年和2000年,年均气温无较大波动。长江源区总体温度为中纬度地区>高纬度地区>低纬度地区。

In order to study the law of temperature change in the source region of the Yangtze River and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of temperature change policies in the region,this paper takes 9 landmark stations in the region as research objects,and analyzes the trend of monthly mean,monthly maximum and monthly minimum temperature from 1961 to 2019. Spearman correlation test,Mann-Kendall test,linear regression test and ArcGIS map are used to analyze the temperature trend and identify the mutation year in the region. The results indicated that the temperature in this region showed an upward trend from 1961 to 2019,and the deviation rate of annual maximum temperature was the fastest which was 1. 28 ℃/10 a. The annual average temperature and annual minimum temperature fluctuated steadily without obvious upward trend. Mann Kendall test was used to detect the temperature in the region. The results showed that the year of minimum and maximum temperature mutation was 1968 and 2000,and the average annual temperature did not fluctuate greatly. The order of the temperature in this region was middle latitude region > high latitude region > low latitude region.