MODIS NDVI时序数据支持下的湖南省植被变化及其驱动因素分析

Analysis of vegetation change and its driving factors in Hunan province based on MODIS NDVI time series data

本文基于MODIS NDVI时间序列数据集,运用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Hurst指数和相关分析等方法,对湖南省2000—2018年植被的时空变化特征、演化趋势可持续性及其与气候因子的相关性进行了研究。结果表明:(1)湖南省植被覆盖整体较高,并具有明显的季节变化特征;研究区植被与气温的相关性要强于降水。(2)近19年湖南省植被NDVI整体呈上升态势,增速为8.6%/10 a(P<0.001),其中显著和极显著上升的地区分别占10.3%、57.3%;主要分布在湘中与湘西北的林地、耕地区域;降低的地区主要分布在长株潭等城市建设用地区域及洞庭湖平原的局部耕地区域。(3)未来湖南省植被变化可能向退化的恶性方向发展的面积占80.1%。

Based on MODIS NDVI time series data set,using Sen+Mann Kendall trend test,Hurst index and correlation analysis methods,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics,evolution trend sustainability and its correlation with climate factors of vegetation in Hunan province from 2000 to 2018 are studied.The results show that:(1)The vegetation cover in Hunan province is relatively high and has obvious seasonal variation characteristics.The correlation between vegetation and temperature is stronger than precipitation.(2)In recent 19 years,NDVI of vegetation in Hunan province showed an increasing trend,with a growth rate of 8.6%/10 a(P<0.001),of which 10.3%and 57.3%are significantly increased.It is mainly distributed in the woodland and cultivated land areas of central Hunan and Northwest Hunan.The decreasing areas are mainly distributed in urban construction areas such as Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan and some cultivated land areas of Dongting Lake Plain.(3)In the future,80.1%of the area in Hunan province will be degraded.