何以理性预见未来教育:未来研究方法的启示

How to foresee future education rationally:The Enlightenment of Futurology Methods

未来的不确定性总是吸引着人类去探索和预测,其中不乏感性认识与理性预见两种可能。技术对未来教育的影响也同样如此,造就了“恐惧”“崇拜”“麻木”等典型的感性认识,而缺乏预见未来教育的理性思维。教育是未来研究领域的重要议题,未来研究领域长期积累的方法与应用模型对未来教育的研究具有可迁移的价值。文章基于未来研究领域中的六支柱框架梳理了未来研究核心方法与工具,并从应用实践的可操作性角度解读了“通用预见过程模型”,以期为理性地预见未来教育提供方法指导。基于此,文章认为对未来教育的预见要具备“历史性”“敏锐性”“系统性”“计划性”和“过程性”的视角与思维。文章希望通过未来研究方法的启示来纠正新兴技术之于教育的感性认识,摆脱因技术恐惧与崇拜造成的迷思困境,找寻未来教育合理的发展方向。

The uncertainty of the future always attracted human beings to explore and predict,among which there are two possibilities of perceptual knowledge and rational prediction.The same is true for the impact of technology on future education,creating typical perceptual knowledge of“fear”,“adoration”and“numbness”,and lack of rational thinking for predicting future education.Education is an important topic in futurology,and the methods and application models accumulated in the futurology had a transferable value for future education study.Based on the“six pillars”of the authoritative framework of futurology,the study interpreted the“generic foresight process framework”from the perspective of the operability of applied practice,in order to provide method guidance for rationally foreseeing future education.Based on this,the study believed that the foresight of future education should have the perspectives and thinking of“historicity”,“acuity”,“systematicness”,“planning”and“procedure”.The study hopes to use the enlightenment of futurology methods to correct the perceptual understanding of emerging technologies for education,get rid of the myths and predicaments caused by technology fear and worship,and find the reasonable development direction of future education.