对比视角下基于灰色GM(1,1)模型新疆社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率预测分析

Prediction and analysis of medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers from a comparative perspective-based on the grey GM (1,1) model

目的分析与预测新疆社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率的发展趋势,找出与西部地区之间存在的差距,为提升新疆社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率提供依据。方法基于2011-2019年新疆统计年鉴及国家卫生统计年鉴相关数据,借助灰色预测GM(1,1)模型分析预测2019-2025年新疆社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率。结果 2010-2018年,新疆社区卫生服务中心诊疗人次数及医师日均担负诊疗人次数均呈逐年增长趋势,截止至2018年,分别为603.0万人次及11.9人次;床位使用率、出院人数、出院患者平均住院日及医师日均担负住院床日数均呈S型变化,截止至2018年,分别为42.9%、4.7万人、8.0日及0.8床日。通过灰色模型预测得,2019-2025年诊疗人次数、医师日均担负诊疗人次数、出院人数均呈上升趋势,预测至2025年,分别增加到1 106.04万人次、15.73人次及4.81万人次;病床使用率、平均住院日、医师日均担负住院床日均呈下降趋势,预测至2025年分别下降到39.52%、7.07日及0.77床日。结论未来几年,新疆社区卫生服务中心的医疗服务效率仍处于西部地区中等偏下水平,政府应根据当地实际情况在提升诊疗服务效率的基础上,加大对住院服务效率的提升。

Objective To analyze and predict the development trend of medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers, to find out the gap between Xinjiang and western regions, and to provide a basis for improving medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers. Methods Based on the data concerning Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook and National Health Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2019, the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model was used to analyze and predict the medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers from 2019 to 2025. Results From 2010 to 2018, the number of patients and the average daily number of doctors performing diagnosis and treatment in Xinjiang community health service centers showed increasing trends year by year, with 6.030 million patients and 11.9 ones by 2018, respectively. The bed utilization rate, the number of discharged patients, the average length of hospital stay of discharged patients and the number of inpatients per doctor per day showed an S-shaped change, with 42.9%, 47,000 discharged patients, 8.0 days and 0.8 bed per day by 2018, respectively. According to the prediction based on the grey GM(1,1) model, the number of patients, the number of daily patients per doctor and the number of discharged patients showed an upward trend from 2019 to 2025, and it was projected to increase to 11.0604 million patients, 15.73 patients and 48,100 discharged patients by 2025, respectively. The bed utilization rate, the average length of hospital stay and the number of inpatients per doctor per day showed a downward trend, and it was projected to fall to 39.52%, 7.07 days and 0.77 bed per day by 2025, respectively. Conclusion In the next few years, the medical service efficiency of Xinjiang community health service centers will still be at the medium and low level in the western region. The government should enhance the efficiency of inpatient service on the basis of improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment service according to the local actual situation.