基于PLS的增压锅炉运行失稳概率修正计算

Correction Calculation of Instability Probability of Supercharged Boiler based on PLS

为定量评估增压锅炉的运行稳定性,基于增压锅炉的工作原理,选取锅炉水位和锅炉汽压的失稳概率作为增压锅炉运行稳定性的评估指标。失稳概率为锅炉水位和锅炉汽压超过极限值的概率,基于时间序列趋势预测算法得到锅炉水位和锅炉汽压的预测趋势;以预测趋势值和原时序的方差计算失稳概率;分析锅炉水位和锅炉汽压的相关参数,通过偏最小二乘回归分析得到拟合函数修正失稳概率,使失稳概率更接近实际情况。最终得到未来90s内锅炉水位和锅炉汽压的修正失稳概率,定量地评估了增压锅炉的运行稳定性,可为增压锅炉运行稳定性管理提供技术支持,为蒸汽动力系统的运行稳定性评估奠定基础。

In order to quantitatively evaluate the operating stability of a pressurized boiler,this paper selected the boiler water level and boiler steam pressure instability probability as the evaluation index reflecting the operating stability of the pressurized boiler based on the working principle of the pressurized boiler.The instability probability is the probability of the boiler water level and boiler steam pressure exceeding the limit value.The calculation steps are as follows:firstly,the prediction trend of boiler water level and steam pressure was obtained based on the time series trend prediction algorithm.Then the instability probability was calculated by the predicted trend value and the variance of the original time sequence.Finally,the relative parameters of boiler water level and boiler steam pressure were analyzed,and the instability probability was corrected by partial least square regression analysis with fitting function,so that the gain and loss stability probability is closer to the actual situation.Finally,the corrected instability probability of the boiler water level and boiler steam pressure in the next 90s was obtained,and the operation stability of the booster boiler was quantitatively evaluated,which can provide technical support for the management of the operation stability of the booster boiler and stabilize the operation of the steam power system Lay the foundation for sexual assessment.