基于事故树理论的堤防溃口现场抢险方案错误实例分析

Analysis on on-site flood relief scheme’s error cases of dike breach based on fault tree theory

为了避免因一线技术人员现场抢险方案的错误判断而耽误抢险时间,或因技术错误和抢险方案制定不及时而导致溃口,根据防汛抢险实践和相关溃口失事案例,应用事故树分析法建立了现场抢险方案错误事故树图。依据事故树分析基本原理,对堤防溃口的现场抢险方案错误实例进行了定性、定量分析。结果表明:现场抢险方案错误共有7种事故模式,现场抢险方案的前瞻性、综合性、针对性和有效性是防范现场抢险方案错误的侧重点及主要控制方向。

In order to avoid the delay of rescue time due to the mistakes of the on-site flood relief schemes,and even causing breaches because of technical errors and untimely rescue plans made by on-site technicians,the fault tree diagram of the on-site rescue schemes is established through fault tree analysis method according to the flood control and relief practice and the related breach cases.The wrong fault tree diagram of on-site flood relief schemes is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively based on the dike breach cases according to the principals of fault tree analysis method.The results show that there are seven error modes of on-site flood relief schemes,and the fore⁃sight,comprehensiveness,pertinence and effectiveness of on-site flood relief plans are the key points and the main control directions to effectively prevent the errors of on-site flood relief plans.