黄檀属珍稀树种未来适宜区变化预测

Prediction of future changes in suitable distribution area for rare tree species of Dalbergia

【目的】黄檀属Dalbergia树种具有很高的经济价值,但物种野外种群受到了严重的破坏。随着气候变化的加剧,该属物种分布存在着较高的不确定性,迫切需要深入认识这些物种未来分布的趋势,以便更好地进行保护。【方法】利用最大墒(MaxEnt)模型,基于当前气候环境,对列入中国生物多样性红色名录的7种黄檀属珍稀乔木树种在中国的适宜分布区进行了预测,并对未来不同气候情景下其分布区的变化进行了分析。【结果】年平均温度、等温性、气温季节变动系数、最热季降水量、最干月降水量、最干季降水量、土壤碳酸盐含量与坡度是影响7种黄檀属珍稀乔木适宜区分布模拟的关键环境因子。黄檀属珍稀乔木除黄檀D.hupeana外均将在未来获得更大的适宜分布区。黄檀的适宜分布区面积与最适分布区面积则均有所减小,其中适宜分布区面积将减小30.8%,最适分布区则将缩小49.3%。【结论】由于分布区存在差异,同属不同物种的未来分布对气候变化的响应不同,未来的保护工作应当集中在黄檀等适宜分布区缩小的物种上。表3参39。

[Objective]Dalbergia has high economic value and its wild population has been seriously damaged.With the aggravation of climate change,the population distribution of Dalbergia is highly uncertain.Therefore,it is urgent to understand the future development trend of the species for better protection.[Method]Based on the current climate and environment factors,the suitable distribution areas of 7 rare tree species of Dalbergia listed in the China biodiversity red list were predicted by using the MaxEnt model,and the changes of distribution areas under different climate scenarios in the future were analyzed.[Result]The annual mean temperature,isothermal property,seasonal variation coefficient of air temperature,precipitation in the hottest season,precipitation in the driest month,precipitation in the driest season,soil calcium carbonate content and slope were the key environmental factors affecting the distribution simulation of 7 species of Dalbergia rare trees.Except D.hupeana,the rare trees of Dalbergia would obtain more suitable distribution area in the future.The suitable distribution area and optimum distribution area of D.hupeana decreased by 30.8%and 49.3%respectively.[Conclusion]The future distribution of different species of the same genus has different responses to climate change due to the differences in distribution areas,so the future conservation efforts should focus on species such as D.hupeana,which are suitable for reduced distribution area.[Ch,3 tab.39 ref.].