地下洞室群施工进度纠偏的SD-DES模型

SD-DES coupling model for construction schedule rectification of underground hydropower stations

施工进度纠偏是保证地下洞室群在受到突发干扰后仍能平稳有序施工的有效手段。系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型能够有效模拟纠偏过程。现有研究缺乏对地下洞室群施工中采取的纠偏策略的综合考虑;相关SD模型未能考虑人员懈怠等纠偏参数的影响。针对上述问题,建立地下洞室群施工进度纠偏SD-DES(discrete event simulation)模型,其中,纠偏策略SD模型包含加班、增加设备、增派人员、重调度等四个子模型,并且考虑了纠偏参数的影响;同时,兼顾SD模型和DES模型的优势,对“进度偏差估计-纠偏策略制定-策略实施效果”进行模拟与分析。结合实际地下洞室群工程进行了施工进度纠偏应用研究,结果表明:相比于传统SD模型,本文方法得到的策略与实际更吻合,证明本文方法的优越性。

Construction schedule rectification is an effective method to ensure the orderly construction of underground hydropower stations against the interference of emergencies,and its process can be effectively simulated using a system dynamics(SD)model.Previous studies lack consideration of rectification strategies adopted in the construction,and the reported SD models failed to consider rectification parameters.This study constructs a SD-DES model by coupling a SD model and a discrete event simulation(DES)model for construction schedule rectification,considering rectification parameters and integrating four sub-models into the SD:overtime,increase in mechanical equipment,increase in construction personnel,and rescheduling.Taking the advantages of the SD and DES models,we simulate and analyze the full procedure of schedule estimation-rectification strategy formulation-strategy implementation effect.Application to a real underground hydropower station project shows that our new model improves significantly the schedule rectification strategy,more superior to the traditional SD model.