基于聚类分析的新疆棉花生产风险区划研究

Study on Risk Regionalization of Cotton Production in Xinjiang Based on Cluster Analysis

为了新疆棉花生产的风险评估和风险区划,科学厘定棉花保险差异化费率,促进新疆棉花生产保险的健康发展。以1990~2019年新疆13个地级区域的棉花单产数据序列为研究对象,利用非参数信息扩散模型估计各地的棉花产量风险损失率。并结合实际,建立风险评估指标体系,利用因子分析法和聚类分析法,对新疆13个地级区域的棉花生产风险进行了等级区划。区划结果与目前新疆棉花种植区域的分布和各地自然灾害状况一致。

For the risk assessment and risk zoning of cotton production in Xinjiang,scientifically determine the differentiated rate of cotton insurance,and promote the healthy development of Xinjiang cotton production insurance.Taking the cotton yield data series of 13 prefecture regions in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2019 as the research object,the non-parametric information diffusion model is used to estimate the risk loss rate of cotton production in each region.Combined with the actual situation,a risk assessment index system was established,using factor analysis and cluster analysis to classify the cotton production risks in 13 prefecture regions in Xinjiang.The zoning results are consistent with the current distribution of cotton growing areas in Xinjiang and the natural disasters in various regions.