空间计量视角下外贸高质量发展影响因素的模型研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors of High-quality Development of Foreign Trade from the Perspective of Spatial Measurement

为了描述省域外贸高质量发展的时空分布特征及其影响因素的驱动路线,提出将非参数方法引入传统的线性空间计量模型.基于我国30省2007-2019年的面板数据,构建基于万有引力的外贸溢出矩阵绘制莫兰散点图讨论其空间溢出特征,然后建立静态、动态及半参数空间计量模型刻画非线性变量与其余变量对外贸发展的影响效应,利用极大似然估计、局部线性估计和工具变量法进行模型估计.结果表明:时空双固定的半参数空间滞后模型(SP-SLM)是研究该问题的最佳方法.最后结合参数估计结果和偏导数图讨论了各解释变量的影响效应.

In order to describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the high-quality development of provincial foreign trade and the driving route of its influencing factors,this paper proposes to introduce non-parametric methods into the traditional linear spatial measurement model.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2007 to 2019,construct a foreign trade spillover matrix based on universal gravity and draw a Moran scatter plot to discuss its spatial spillover characteristics.Then establish static,dynamic and semiparametric spatial measurement models to describe the effects of nonlinear variables and other variables on the development of foreign trade.Use maximum likelihood estimation,local linear estimation and instrumental variable method for model estimation.The results show that the semi-parametric spatial lag model(SP-SLM) with dual fixed time and spatial is the best method to study this problem.Finally,the effect of each explanatory variable is discussed in combination with the parameter estimation results and the partial derivative diagram.