基于等维递补灰色GM(1,1)模型的山东省民营医院发展

Analysis on the Development of Private Hospitals in Shandong Province Based on the GM(1,1) Model

为完善山东省的社会办医政策提供合理化建议,基于等维递补灰色GM(1,1)模型,对山东省民营医院2018-2022年发展情况进行外推预测分析研究.结果表明模型预测精度高,预测结果客观符合实际,可为民营医院发展规划提供参照依据.山东省民营医院总体发展状况良好,但在规模、人力资源、医疗卫生资源利用等问题短板仍存续,应进一步落实社会办医的实施细则,控制民营医院总量,提高发展质量,避免盲目扩张,实现民营医院可持续发展.

In order to provide reasonable Suggestions for the improvement of social medical policies in Shandong Province,based on the GM(1,1) model of iso-dimensional incremental grey,this paper carried out extrapolation prediction and research on the development of private hospitals in Shandong province in 2018-2022.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is high and the prediction results are in line with the reality.The overall development of private hospitals in Shandong province is good,but problems such as scale,human resources and utilization of medical and health resources still exist.Therefore,it is necessary to further implement the implementation rules of social hospitals,control the totalnumber of private hospitals,improve the quality of development,avoid blind expansion,and realize the sustainable development of private hospitals.