金融开放与产业结构变化:国际经验比较

Financial Openness and Industrial Restructuring:A Comparison of International Experiences

针对发达国家与新兴市场和发展中国家面临的去工业化问题,本文重点研究金融开放对产业结构和工业化进程的影响。选取1996—2017年75个国家的面板数据,使用工具变量广义矩估计模型进行实证分析发现,新兴市场和发展中国家金融开放对产业结构的收入效应大于替代效应,对工业化有促进作用;发达国家金融开放对产业结构的替代效应大于收入效应,金融开放呈现显著的去工业化效果,即金融开放度与产业结构指标具有非线性关系。进一步研究发现,中等收入国家金融开放主要通过信贷和货币市场影响产业结构,高收入国家主要依赖资本市场影响产业结构。

Focusing on the problem of deindustrialization faced by developed and emerging market and developing countries, this paper combines the background of both economic globalization and financial liberalization to analyze the effects of financial opening in various countries. It is of great significance for China and other emerging market and developing countries to complete the process of industrialization and avoid the negative effects of premature deindustrialization.Using the panel data from 75 countries and generalized moment estimation of instrumental variable for empirical analysis,this paper finds that the income effect of financial opening in emerging market and developing countries on the industrial structure is greater than the substitution effect, which promotes industrialization. However, the comprehensive effect of financial openness reverses in developed countries, financial openness shows a significant effect of deindustrialization,demonstrating an non-linear relationship with industrial structure indicators.This article has two marginal contributions. Firstly, from the perspective of financial openness, the paper uses Ricardo’s open economic model to study its impact on the industrial structure and finds that there are income effects and substitution effects of financial openness. Secondly, it confirms the impact of the three transmission channels of financial opening,namely the money market, bank credit market and capital market on deindustrialization. The financial opening in middle-income countries mainly affects the industrial structure through credit and money markets, and that in high-income countries mainly relies on capital markets to transmit the impact of financial opening.