肺结核发病情况的空间自相关研究

Study on the Spatial Autocorrelation of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

为了解北京市海淀区结核病发病的分布状况,分析其空间聚集性规律,本文收集2015—2017年北京市海淀区各街道乡镇的肺结核登记病例进行空间自相关研究。结果显示,肺结核总登记病例的全局Moran’s I的值为0.32,P<0.05,表明海淀区各街道乡镇肺结核的发病率存在空间聚集效应。进一步进行局部空间自相关分析,结果显示,苏家坨镇和温泉镇为肺结核高发病率聚集区,存在局部空间自相关,八里庄街道、紫竹院街道和曙光街道同样为肺结核高发病率聚集区,存在局部空间自相关。海淀区涂阳及仅培阳肺结核病例的全局Moran’s I的值为0.28,P<0.05,表明2015—2017年海淀区各街道乡镇涂阳及仅培阳肺结核的发病存在空间聚集效应。进一步进行局部空间自相关分析显示,苏家坨镇、温泉镇、香山街道为涂阳及仅培阳肺结核高发病率聚集区,存在局部空间自相关。

In order to understand the distribution of tuberculosis in Haidian District of Beijing and analyze the spatial clustering rule,registered cases of tuberculosis in various streets and towns in Haidian District of Beijing from 2015 to 2017 were collected for spatial autocorrelation research.The results showed that the total Moran’s I value of tuberculosis total enrollment was 0. 32( P <0. 05),and the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the streets of Haidian District was considered to be spatial aggregation. Further local autocorrelation analysis showed that Sujiatuo town and Wenquan town had high incidence of tuberculosis and had local spatial autocorrelation. And Balizhuang Street,Zizhuyuan Street and Shuguang Street were also areas with high incidence of tuberculosis,and there was local spatial autocorrelation. The total Moran’s I value of smear-positive and only Pei-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Haidian District was 0. 28( P <0. 05). It could be considered that there was a spatial clustering effect in the incidence of smear-yang and only Peiyang pulmonary tuberculosis in the streets and towns of Haidian District from 2015 to 2017. Further analysis of local spatial autocorrelation showed that Sujiatuo town,Wenquan town,and Xiangshan street were areas with high incidence of smear-yang and Peiyang-only pulmonary tuberculosis,and there was local spatial autocorrelation.