贴近度理论用于防洪工程造价估算的探讨

Discussion on Cost Estimation of Flood Control Project with Nearness Degree Theory

防洪工程投资估算始终属于水利工程中研究的重点,依据贴近度理论和指数平滑法相关原理提出了贴近度的重要概念,构建起防洪工程项目投资估算模型,并以已建类似工程为依据,进行了特征元素的确定和相关参数的分析,最后以某新建大桥防洪工程帷幕灌浆子工程为例,进行了工程造价的估算。结果表明,文章所构建的估算模型所得工程造价结果与根据《水利水电工程可行性研究报告编制规范》所得结果的误差在允许范围内,所得防洪工程造价估算结果可靠。

The investment estimation of flood control project has always been the focus of the hydraulic engineering research. According to the theory of Nearness Degree and the principle of Exponential Smoothing method,the important concept of nearness degree is put forward,and the investment estimation model of flood control project is constructed. The characteristic elements are determined and the relevant parameters are analyzed based on the existing similar projects. The project cost is estimated taking the curtain grouting project of a new bridge flood control project as an example. The results show that the error between the project cost obtained by the estimation model constructed in this paper and those obtained by Specification for compiling feasibility study report of water resources and hydropower projects( SL 618-2012) is within the allowable range. Therefore,the estimation result of flood control project cost obtained in this paper is reliable.