人力资本—产业结构匹配度对城市化的影响——来自中国287个地级及以上城市的经验证据

A study on the impact of human capital-industrial structure matching degree on urbanization:Empirical evidence from 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China

如何保证就业稳定、促进城市化的可持续性发展是一个值得关注的议题。已有文献普遍只是单独地研究了人力资本或产业结构升级对城市化的影响,而忽视二者之间的协同作用。文章基于1999—2016年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据,创新性地测算了不同类型城市人力资本和产业结构之间的匹配度,并运用两步系统GMM模型就人力资本—产业结构匹配度对城市化的影响进行实证分析,结果发现:人力资本—产业结构匹配度与城市化之间呈显著的正向线性关系,但会因城市规模和地区差异而有显著不同;从不同城市规模看,小型城市、中型城市、大型城市的人力资本—产业结构匹配度对城市化的正向影响不如特大型城市突出;从地区差异看,相对于中西部地区城市,东部地区小型城市、中型城市、大型城市人力资本—产业结构匹配度对城市化的正向影响更强,但对于特大型城市而言,上述情况则正好相反。因此,我们要注重城市化的可持续性,作好不同规模和不同区域的城市产业发展和就业方向定位,以提高人力资本—产业结构匹配度,促进城市化进程。

How to ensure the employment stability and promote the sustainable development of urbanization is an issue worthy of attention.Generally,the existing literature only studies the impact of human capital or industrial structure upgrading on urbanization,but ignores the synergy between them.Based on panel data of 287 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 1999 to 2016,this paper creatively calculates the matching degree between human capital and industrial structure of different types of cities,and then uses two-step system GMM model to make an empirical analysis of the impacts of human capital-industrial structure matching degree on urbanization.The results show that:1)there is a significant positive linear relationship between human capital-industrial structure matching degree and urbanization,but there will be significant differences due to the size of cities and regional differences.2)From the perspective of city-sizes’differences,the positive impact of human capital-industrial structure matching degree of small,medium-sized and large cities on urbanization is not as prominent as that of super-large cities.3)From the perspective of regional differences,compared with the cities in the central and western regions,the human capital-industrial structure matching degree of the small,medium and large cities in eastern cities has a stronger positive impact on urbanization,but for the super-large cities,the situation is just the opposite.The paper urges policy initiatives to pay attention to the sustainability of urbanization,improve the positioning of urban industrial development and employment direction according to cities of different sizes and regions,in order to improve the matching degree between human capital and industrial structure,and promote the process of urbanization.