基于STIRPAT模型的我国水环境污染影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors of water environmental pollution in China based on STIRPAT model

文章以COD排放量作为我国水环境污染指标,基于STIRPAT模型,选取我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2008~2017年省际面板数据,通过OLS回归分析方法,对研究区的水环境污染情况及其影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,人口规模、人均GDP、排放强度、产业结构等与COD值之间的关系均为正相关关系,其中,工业产值占GDP的比例越高,对环境造成的压力越大;在影响COD的各项因素中,人口规模的影响程度最大;城市化水平和用水结构与COD值之间为负相关关系。

In this paper,COD emission is taken as the water environmental pollution index in China.Based on the STIRPAT model,the water environmental pollution and its influencing factors in the study area are analyzed by the OLS regression analysis method with the provincial panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)from 2008 to 2017.The results show that the relationships among the COD and the population,the per capita GDP,the emission intensity and the industrial structure are positively correlated.The pressure on the environment is greater with the higher proportion of the industrial production to GDP.Among all the factors,the COD is affected mostly by the population.There is a negative correlation between the COD and the urbanization level as well as the water use structure.