2021年6月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in June 2021

目的评估2021年6月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果相较2021年5月,6月全球月新增确诊病例下降了40.65%,全球月新增死亡病例下降了25.37%。非洲区6月新增确诊病例和死亡病例均大幅上升,增长趋势较5月明显加快,应重点关注。哥伦比亚、俄罗斯、印度尼西亚、英国、南非、伊朗月新增确诊增长率超过20%,为全球重点关注国家。俄罗斯、吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿富汗、蒙古、塔吉克斯坦是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论进入6月后,全球COVID-19疫情出现好转,除非洲区外,其他各区6月新增确诊病例均有不同程度下降,美洲区(北)、欧洲区、东南亚区、东地中海区月新增确诊病例和死亡均有明显下降。对于全球重点关注区域和国家要持续进行监测,关注其疫情和防控政策变化,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in June 2021 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”,“countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region”and“neighboring countries of special concern”.Results Compared with May 2021,the number of confirmed cases decreased by 40.65%and deaths decreased by 25.37%globally in June 2021.The growth rates of newly confirmed and death cases in Africa increased exponentially,the growth trend accelerated significantly than in May,thus the region needs critical concern.As the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 20%this month,Colombia,Russia,Indonesia,United Kingdom,South Africa,and Iran were classified as"countries of global concern".Russia,Kyrgyzstan,Afghanistan,Mongolia,Tajikistan were the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.Conclusion Since June,the global COVID-19 pandemic improved.The number of new confirmed cases has decreased to various degrees,except in Africa.The number of new confirmed and death cases in Americas(North),European,Southeast Asia,and Eastern Mediterranean has greatly decreased.It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with a global focus,paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies,and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.