汶川地震极重灾区震后经济发展评价

Evaluation of Post-earthquake Economic Development of the Most Severely Affected Areas in Wenchuan Earthquake

为实现汶川地震极重灾区经济发展评价,采用AHP-TOPSIS作为评价方法,以四川省平均水平作为对比标准,构建了区域经济发展的评价指标体系,并以汶川县为例,对其震后经济发展进行了评价。研究表明:汶川县在震后的经济恢复和发展具有阶段性,2016年后汶川县的经济发展相对于四川省平均水平进入下降阶段,经济持续增长动力有限,具体表现为经济规模和经济增长水平已下降至四川省平均水平以下,不过震后汶川县的经济结构得到及时调整,但仍需进一步改善。在灾后的重建政策中,应关注灾区经济的长期恢复,促进灾区经济的可持续发展。

In order to realize the evaluation and prediction of economic development in the most severely affected areas in Wenchuan earthquake,the evaluation indicator system of regional economic development is constructed.AHP-TOPSIS is selected as the evaluation method and prediction model,and the average level of Sichuan Province is taken as the comparison standard.By taking Wenchuan County as an example,the post-earthquake economic development of Wenchuan County is evaluated.The research shows that the post-earthquake economic recovery and development of Wenchuan County has stages.After 2016,compared with the average level of Sichuan Province,the economic development of Wenchuan County has entered a declining stage,and the sustainable economic growth momentum is insufficient.The specific performance is that the economic scale and economic growth level of Wenchuan County have dropped below the average level of Sichuan Province.After the earthquake,the economic structure of Wenchuan County has been adjusted in time,but it still needs further adjustment and improvement.Therefore,in the post-disaster reconstruction policy,attention should be paid to the long-term recovery of the economy to promote the sustainable development of the economy in the disaster areas.