经济政策不确定性与中间产品内向化——基于成本变动与供给质量的视角

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Internalization of Intermediate Products——Based on Cost Changes and Supply Quality Perspective

本文利用2000—2015年微观企业数据考察了进口来源国经济政策不确定性对中国企业国内中间产品投入的影响。研究发现,进口来源国经济政策不确定性推动了中国企业中间产品内向化发展。渠道分析表明,存货成本提高导致的成本变动和国外供给收缩引致的进口产品质量降低是经济政策不确定性推动企业供应链向中间产品内向化新形态演变的重要途径。异质性分析显示,经济政策不确定性对中间品供给结构的重构效应对沿海地区和加工贸易企业更为突出,具有显著的规模门槛。

This article used the micro-enterprise data from 2000 to 2015 to study the impact of EPU of the import source country on the domestic intermediate product input. The result shows that the EPU of the import source country has promoted the degree of internalization of enterprises’ intermediate products. Channel analysis shows that the cost change effect caused by the increase of inventory costs and the reduction in product quality caused by the shrinking foreign supply are important ways for EPU to promote the evolution of enterprise supply chain to the new form of ’intermediate products internalization’.The heterogeneity test shows that the restructuring effect of EPU on the supply structure of intermediate goods is more prominent in coastal areas and processing trade enterprises, and has a significant scale threshold.