物流业与经济发展动态关系研究--以山东省为例

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between logistics industry and Economic Development--Taking Shandong Province as an example

为了探究物流业与经济发展之间的内生关系,进一步促进供给侧结构性改革,文章基于山东省2004~2017年统计年鉴的相关数据,基于物流业投入与产出两个要素衡量物流水平,基于经济增长、居民生活水平以及对外开放程度三个指标对经济发展水平做出客观评价,综合运用CRITIC法、线性加权法对数据进行预处理,构建综合评价指数函数,得出物流业与经济发展的综合评价结果.基于上述数据建立VAR模型,并运用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验等系列方法,从经济视角分析了物流业与经济发展之间的动态演变关系.研究结果表明:山东省物流业与经济发展之间存在双向的动态变化关系,二者是相辅相成的;物流基础建设对山东省经济发展做出的贡献具有一定的滞后性;物流业水平对山东省经济发展的反馈作用较小.

In order to explore the endogenous relationship between logistics industry and economic development,further promote structural reform,This article is based on the related data of statistical yearbook from 2004 to 2017 in shandong province,based on the two bas ic elements of logistics and logistics input-output measure the logistics level,based on the economic growth,residents’living standard and open to the public the three indexes to the level of economic development to make an objective evaluation,comprehensive CRITIC method,linear weighting method is used to build a comprehensive evaluation index function after data preprocessing,and it is concluded that the logistics industry level and the comprehensive evaluation result of economic development.Based on the above data,the VAR model is established,and through a series of methods such as unit root test and Granger causality test,the dynamic evolution relationship between logistics industry level and economic development is analyzed from the perspective of economy.The results show that there is a two-way dynamic change relationship between logistics industry and economic development in Shandong Province,and they complement each other.The contribution of logistics infrastructure to the economic development of Shandong province has a certain lag.Logistics industry level has little feedback effect on the econ omic development of Shandong Province.