基于灰色理论的长三角生物医药产业人才需求预测研究

Research on the talent demand prediction of biomedical industry in Yangtze River Delta based on grey theory

文章通过调查2015-2018年长三角生物医药上市公司职工情况和营业收入,对原始数据建立GM(1,1)灰色系统模型,并预测2015-2026年人才需求及营业收入。分析得出:未来几年,长三角生物医药产业营业收入不断增长,产业规模不断扩张,对人才的需求也逐年递增,高学历人才的需求增长幅度大于低学历,硕士人才需求增长率高于其他学历,大专以下学历人才需求逐年萎缩。生物医药产业人才需求层次为:硕士和博士为主体的科技创新创业人才、本科学历的管理人才和大专学历的高技能应用型人才。

By investigating the staff situation and operation income of listed biomedical companies in the Yangtze River Delta from 2015 to 2018,this paper establishes GM(1,1)grey system model based on the original data,and predicts the talent demand and operation income from 2015 to 2026.It is concluded that in the next few years,the biomedical industry in the Yangtze River Delta will continue to grow in revenue and industrial scale,and the demand for talents will also increase year by year.The growth rate of the demand for talents with high education background will be higher than that for those with low education background.The growth rate of the demand for talents with master degree will be higher than that for those with other education degrees,and the demand for talents with junior college degree will shrink year by year.The level of talent demand in the biomedical industry will be as follows:sci-tech innovation and entrepreneurship talents with master’s degree and doctor’s degree,management talents with bachelor’s degree and high-skill applied talents with college degree.