“普尔瓦马事件”中的印度行为探析——基于观众成本理论的视角

Analysis of Indian Behavior in“Pulwama Incident”:A Perspective of Audience Cost Theory

“普尔瓦马事件”是印巴克什米尔问题的一个延伸。从观众成本理论的视角来看,“普尔瓦马事件”后,印度国内观众呈现出“鹰派”偏好。莫迪政府为了回应国内观众,宣称此次事件与巴官方存在联系,扬言惩治巴基斯坦,并做出越境打击的武力威胁。在巴方做出不退让的回应后,莫迪政府放弃交战,却未曾触发观众被欺骗而产生的惩罚成本。尽管莫迪政府在此次事件中成功规避了观众成本,但近年来印度国内印度教民族主义不断攀升,印度面对此类危机时所拥有的政策灵活性越来越低,南亚安全局势将更加脆弱。

In fact,the“Pulwama incident”is still an extension of the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan.From the perspective of audience cost theory,the Indian domestic audience showed a“hawkish”preference after the“Pulwama incident”.In response to the domestic audience,Modi’s government claimed there was a link between the incident and the Pakistani authorities,threatening to punish Pakistan and to use force to strike across the border.After Pakistan made a firm response,Modi’s government gave up the war without triggering the audience cost.Despite the success of Modi’s government in avoiding audience costs,Hindu nationalism has been rising in India in recent years.India will have less and less policy flexibility in the face of such crises and the security situation in South Asia will become more fragile.