中美经贸争端下中欧贸易的发展潜力研究

Research on the Development Potential of Sino-European Trade Under Sino-US Economic and Trade Disputes

早在2019年欧盟就已取代美国成为我国最大的贸易合作伙伴,而中欧贸易是推进我国全方位对外开放战略的重要支撑。本文通过对中欧贸易的发展历程进行分析并比较中欧、中美贸易产品结构与产业关联度,结果发现,在中美经贸摩擦的背景下中欧经贸具有较大的发展潜力,在出口方面,中国向欧盟、美国的出口结构相似,欧盟对中国向美国的出口产品具有较强的替代作用。在进口方面,中欧与中美贸易虽存在一定差异,但对欧盟、美国产生最大辐射效应的中国行业均为航空运输,且绝大部分的欧盟行业对我国经济所产生的推动力要普遍高于美国。本文针对中国与欧盟在中美经贸冲突下的贸易合作,提出了充分利用政策加持、优化与欧盟的进出口结构以及采取针对性协作等对策建议。

As early as 2019,the European Union has replaced the United States to become China’s largest trade partner,and China-EU trade has been an important support to promote China’s all-round opening-up strategy. This article analyzes the development process of Sino-EU trade and compares the product structure and industrial relevance of Sino-EU and Sino-US trade.The results show that under the background of Sino-US economic and trade friction,Sino EU trade has great development potential.China’s export structure to the EU and the United States are similar,and the EU has a strong substitution effect on China’s exports to the United States. In terms of imports,although there are certain differences in Sino-EU and Sino-US trade,the Chinese industries that have the greatest radiation effect on the EU and the United States are air transport,and the driving force of most EU industries on China’s economy is generally higher than that of the United States. In view of the economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU under the Sino-US economic and trade conflict,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as making full use of policy blessing,optimizing the import and export structure with the EU and taking targeted cooperation.