民间投资、产业结构与经济增长

Private Investment,Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

近年来,民间投资和产业结构在我国经济发展过程中起到重要作用,探究民间投资和产业结构对经济增长的作用机制,对推动我国经济增长具有重要意义。本文采用2012~2019年30个省、直辖市、自治区的相关数据,使用面板联立方程模型进行分析,研究发现:(1)民间投资对经济增长具有显著的正向相关关系;(2)民间投资对产业结构优化没有显著的促进作用,但产业结构的升级优化可以推动经济增长;(3)民间投资对经济发展存在双重作用途径,即民间投资对经济增长既有直接效应,又有间接效应;(4)在控制变量中,政府投资可以促进经济发展,但影响力不及民间投资,对产业结构优化没有显著影响;劳动力投入和贸易开放度对经济增长都具有显著的促进作用。

In recent years,private investment and industrial structure play an important role in the process of China’s economic development. Exploring the mechanism of private investment and industrial structure on economic growth is of great significance to promote China’s economic growth. This paper uses the relevant data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2012 to 2019,and uses the panel simultaneous equation model for analysis. The results show that:( 1) private investment has a significant positive correlation with economic growth;( 2) private investment has no significant effect on the optimization of industrial structure,but the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure can promote economic growth;( 3) private investment has dual effects on economic development,that is,private investment has both direct and indirect effects on economic growth;( 4) in the control variables,government investment can promote economic development,but not as good as private investment,and has no significant impact on the optimization of industrial structure. Labor input and trade openness have a significant role in promoting economic growth.