基于协调度时空分析的上海超大城市公共服务供需关系

Study on Supply-Demand Relationship of Public Services in Mega City Shanghai Based on Spatial Temporal Analysis of Coordinated Development Degree

城市公共服务的供需协调关系对于城市公共服务供给质量的改善和承载力的提升具有十分重要的意义。本文以上海为例,对2005—2016年间上海各区的公共服务供需关系的时空变化特征进行深入分析,探讨影响城市公共服务有效供给的主要因素。研究发现,上海城市公共服务需求的空间格局在很大程度上受到公共服务供给的影响,各城区间公共服务供给的不均衡导致服务需求的整体性错位,进而使得公共服务供需失衡问题日益突出。人口大量流入的近郊区成了公共服务供给最薄弱的地区,服务需求跨区转移和空间错位等供需失衡问题较为突出;大力加强薄弱区域的服务供给和投入,是改善城市公共服务供给效率和质量的关键路径。而核心区域公共服务供过于求的现象反映出供给冗余的问题,应根据人口和服务需求的变化对该区域的供给规模和内容进行适当调整,以提高公共资源的供给效率,改善城市整体的供需均衡关系。

The coordination between supply and demand of urban public service is of great significance in improving public service delivery and upgrading the carrying capacity of metro cities.This paper aims to make an in-depth analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of the supply-demand relationship of public services in Shanghai based on the panel data from 2005 to 2016 on a district level,and discusses the main factors affecting the effective supply of urban public services.It is found that the spatial structure of urban public service demand in Shanghai is heavily affected by the supply due to the unbalanced public resource distribution between central and suburban areas.The suburban areas with a large number of population have become the weakest area of public service supply.The imbalance between supply and demand,such as trans-regional transfer of service demand and spatial dislocation,is more prominent.Strengthening the service supply and investment in weak areas is the key path to improve the efficiency and quality of urban public service supply.The oversupply of public services in the central area reflects the problem of supply redundancy,which should be adjusted according to the changes of population and service demand,so as to improve the supply efficiency of public resources and improve the balance between supply and demand of the whole city.