城市体育赛事与城市发展的时序演化及耦合研究

Research on Time Series Evolution and Coupling between Sports Events and Urban Development

以世界马拉松大满贯联盟候选赛事成都马拉松为例,通过耦合模型和灰色关联度分析法,定量分析体育赛事与城市发展的时序演化和耦合协调关系,找出重要的影响因素,为更好地利用体育赛事助推城市发展提供新的理论和实践参考。结果表明:1.体育赛事与城市发展具有较强的关联系数,两系统要素间相互作用,相互影响,具有较强的耦合协调性;2.成都市马拉松赛事与成都市发展系统综合发展水平在2017年发生变化,表明两系统间的耦合协调作用存在时序演化效应;3.灰色关联度分析表明,城市旅游收入和城市GDP的关联度最大,全社会固定资产投资、第三产业占GDP比重和教育文化、娱乐消费支出也具有较强的关联性和耦合性。

Taking Chengdu Marathon as an example,this paper quantitatively analyzed the time series evolution and coupling coordination relationship between sports events and urban development by coupling model and grey relational degree analysis,and finds out the important influencing factors.It provided a new theoretical and practical reference for better utilizing sports events to promote urban development.The results showed that:1.Sports events and urban development have a relatively strong correlation coefficient,the two system elements interact with each other,have strong coupling and coordination;2.the level of comprehensive development of Chengdu Marathon and Chengdu Development System changed in 2017,indicating that the coupling and coordination between the two systems existed the time series evolution effect;3.Grey correlation analysis shows that urban tourism income has the greatest correlation with urban GDP,and the investment in fixed assets,the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and the expenditure on education,culture and entertainment consumption also have relatively strong correlation and coupling.