全球顺丁橡胶供需分析及预测

Analysis and forecast of global cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supply and demand

近年来,全球顺丁橡胶市场供大于求,消费增速低于产能增速。2020年,全球顺丁橡胶产能543.7×10^(4)t/a、产量和消费量339.8×10^(4)t,产量和消费量同比增长率均为-10.6%。全球顺丁橡胶产能主要集中在东北亚、北美、独联体及西欧地区,消费排名靠前的地区主要是东北亚、北美、东南亚和印巴地区,产业重心逐步向亚洲地区转移。中国顺丁橡胶下游传统消费领域增速放缓,树脂改性等领域的需求增长较快、消费占比逐步增加。预计“十四五”期间,随着全球经济复苏、中国汽车产业逐步恢复,中国顺丁橡胶产能将稳步增长,需求增速也将加快,顺丁橡胶产业将进一步向高质量发展迈进,共享经济、电动汽车等新业态或将促进高性能胶种发展,顺丁橡胶产业利润水平将明显提升。

In recent years,the global cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber(BR)market is oversupplied,and the growth rate of consumption is lower than that of production capacity.The global BR production capacity was 5.437 million tons per year,the output and consumption was 3.398 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%in 2020.The global BR production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia,North America,the Commonwealth of Independent States and Western Europe.The top consumption regions are mainly Northeast Asia,North America,Southeast Asia and India and Pakistan.The industrial focus is gradually shifting to Asia.The growth rate of downstream traditional consumption of BR in China is slowing down,and the demand of resin modification and other fields is growing rapidly,and the proportion of consumption is gradually increasing.It is estimated that during the“14^(th) Five-Year Plan”period,with the global economic recovery and the gradual recovery of China’s automobile industry,China’s BR production capacity will grow steadily,and the demand growth will also accelerate.BR industry will further move towards high-quality development.New formats such as sharing economy and electric vehicles may promote the development of high-performance rubber,and the profit level of BR industry will be significantly improved.