全球聚乙烯供需分析与预测

Analysis and forecast of global polyethylene supply and demand

全球聚乙烯产能近年来稳步增长,新增产能主要来自东北亚和北美等地区。2020年,全球聚乙烯产能达1.27×10^(8) t/a,产量与消费量基本持平。预计到2022年,全球聚乙烯产能将达到1.42×10^(8) t/a,而需求量为1.14×10^(8) t,全球产量和消费量进入低速增长阶段,部分地区产能过剩的矛盾将逐渐凸显。中国聚乙烯产能迎来爆发期,以炼化一体化为代表的装置投产将会改变聚乙烯产品的供应格局,区域间市场竞争加剧,企业产品类型有选择地进行分化,中国市场的进口依赖度逐步降低。中国聚乙烯下游传统消费和新兴消费均维持较高增速,下游消费需求向专业化和高端化转型。随着市场化程度的加深,中国聚乙烯产业结构将得到不断优化和升级。

In recent years,the global polyethylene production capacity has been growing steadily,with new capacity mainly coming from Northeast Asia and North America.In 2020,global polyethylene production capacity reaches 127 million tons per year,with production and consumption basically at the same level.It is expected that by 2022,global polyethylene capacity will reach 142 million tons per year,while demand will be 114 million tons.Global production and consumption will enter a phase of low growth,and the contradiction of overcapacity in some regions will be highlighted.China polyethylene production capacity ushers in an explosive period,the commissioning of units represented by refining and chemical integration will change the supply pattern of polyethylene products,the competition in the inter-regional market will intensify,the product types of enterprises will be selectively differentiated,and the import dependence of the domestic market will gradually decrease.Both traditional and emerging downstream consumption of polyethylene in China maintain high growth rates,with downstream demand transforming to specialization and high-end.With deepening marketization,China’s polyethylene industry structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded.