心理韧性对老年人死亡风险的影响——基于CLHLS(2011-2018)的实证分析

Association between Psychological Resilience and Mortality Risk of the Elderly in China:An Analysis of the CLHLS Data 2011-2018

基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)2011-2018年追踪数据,本文以Cox回归模型探究心理韧性与老年人死亡风险之间的关系。研究发现:在控制社会人口学特征、社会经济地位、基线健康状况与健康行为的前提下,心理韧性对老年人死亡风险的影响显著,即:相对于心理韧性水平较低的老年人,心理韧性水平越高的老年人,其死亡风险则越低;且这种保护效应在低龄(65-79岁)、健康状况良好的老年群体中表现得更为突出。通过改变本文数据结构的稳健性分析验证了本文所得结论是较为稳健的。本发现具有重要的政策启示:(1)重视老年心理韧性建设应该成为降低老年人死亡风险、促进老年健康的重要的政策选择,推动老年心理健康服务从“解决问题”向“提升老年心理健康素养、增强心理韧性”的政策转向;(2)这种旨在提升老年人的心理韧性和促进老年人健康老龄化的干预应该从老年早期开始;(3)老年心理韧性建设是一项系统工程,不应该仅局限于老年人个体层面,还应扩展到与老年人密切相关的家庭、社区、社会及文化层面。

Based on the data from the three waves of Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey 2011-2018(CLHLS)with aged 65 and above in China's Mainland,we aim to investigate whether there is an association between psychological resilience and mortality risk among the elders.The results show that higher levels of psychological resilience are significantly associated with reduced risk of mortality after controlling the sociodemographic characteristics,social economics status and baseline health and healthy behaviors,i.e.the elders with higher levels of psychological resilience boast of lower risk of mortality than the elders with lower psychological resilience and such protection are more significant among the elders aged 65-79 and those aged 80 years and above with healthy status.The robustness analysis by changing the data structure verifies that the conclusions obtained are relatively robust.This finding has some policy implications:1.The construction of psychological resilience of the elderly should be take into account in policy-making aiming to reduce the mortality risk and promote the health of the elderly;2.The intervention program aimed at enhancing psychological resilience and promoting healthy aging for the elders should start early in the aging of elders;3.Psychological resilience at the individual level is cultured systematically and the policy should not only focus on the individual elder,instead,it needs integrate all the efforts from families,organizations,communities,societies and social cultures to build age-friendly social environment,healthy family relationship and efficient community supports of the elders.