基于VAR模型的合肥市住宅商品房价格影响因素分析

Factors Influencing the Commercial Housing Price in Hefei Based on Var Model

合肥市作为安徽省省会城市,房地产市场过速发展,凸显出很多问题,比如房地产市场供应不合理,房价上涨过快等,迫切需要针对合肥市住宅商品现状进行分析,并针对合肥市房地产存在的问题切实地提出相应的解决对策。主要运用VAR模型,通过选取2008-2018年数据,分析商品住宅销售面积(SA)、商品住宅完成投资额(INV)、城镇居民人均可支配收入(PCI)、房地产生产总值(GDP)对住宅商品房价格(HP)的影响,研究发现商品住宅完成投资额对合肥市住宅商品房价格影响度最强,而城镇居民人均可支配收入相对来说对价格影响最弱,格兰杰因果检验表明,合肥市房地产生产总值与商品房价格呈单方向的影响关系,住宅商品房价格会引起合肥市房地产生产总值变化,且为正向影响。

As the capital city of Anhui Province,Hefei’s fast developing real estate market highlights such problems as unreasonable supply of real estate market and rapid rise of house prices.It is urgent to analyze the current situation of Hefei’s residential commodities,and put forward solutions to the problems existing in Hefei’s real estate.This paper uses VAR model to analyze the influence of commercial housing sales area,commercial housing completed investment,per capita disposable income of urban residents and gross real estate production residential commercial housing price by selecting the data from 2008 to 2018,and finds out the influence of commercial housing completed investment on residential commercial housing price in Hefei Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between the real estate GDP and the commercial housing price in Hefei,and the residential commercial housing price may cause the change of the real estate GDP in Hefei,which is a positive impact.