典型中小型电镀企业退役搬迁环境风险评估

Environmental risk assessment on decommissioning process of typical small and medium sized electroplating plants

文章在编制环境风险系统故障树与事件树的基础上,利用GeNIe软件将其映射成贝叶斯网络(Bayesian networks,BNs),直观展示各风险源之间的相互关系,并采用信息扩散理论的数学方法计算获取环境风险分析所需的信息。模型诊断结果显示,环境污染物质泄漏是中小型电镀厂退役搬迁环境风险系统中的关键事件,土壤污染是其发展衍化的主要后果事故。案例研究表明,盛载容器腐蚀破损和冲洗废水处理处置失误是主要环境风险源,通过工作启动前的检查排险、冲洗废水收集检测及厂区防渗地面利用,能将土壤污染事故概率由6.83×10^(-4)降至4.00×10^(-8),环境风险由不可接受水平转为可接受水平。此结果与模型的诊断推理功能可为类似工业企业退役搬迁期间,关键环境风险源的识别和环境风险防范提供参考。

To clarify the relationship between environmental risk sources,the environmental risk system fault tree and event tree were built and then mapped to Bayesian networks(BNs)using GeNIe software.And the mathematical method of information diffusion theory was used to calculate the information data needed for environmental risk analysis.The diagnosis results based on the model show that the leakage of environmental pollutants is the key event in environmental risk system in the decommissioning process of small and medium sized electroplating plants and soil pollution is the main consequence.The case study shows that the corrosion damage of containers and the error disposal of flushing wastewater are two major environmental risk sources.Through measures including checking out danger,collecting flushing wastewater and detecting its pollution,and utilizing anti-seepage ground in the factory,the probability of soil pollution accidents can be reduced from 6.83×10^(-4) to 4.00×10^(-8),and the environmental risk transformed from unacceptable level to acceptable level.The model and the reasoning results support the environmental risk prevention during the decommissioning process of similar industrial enterprises through identification of critical environmental risk sources.