基于VEC模型的资阳市居民收入与物价指数的动态关系实证研究

An Empirical Study on Dynamic Relationship between Resident Income and Price Index in Ziyang Based on VEC Model

物价是经济运行过程中的核心指标,物价变动是社会经济发展过程中不可避免的经济现象。物价变动,尤其是被普遍认为会对社会经济发展和人民生活产生不利的影响,而物价的变动又与居民的消费、收入水平紧密相关。研究解决物价变动对与居民的收入的影响,对于解决中国经济发展过程中面临的相关问题,具有重要经济意义和社会意义。因此,本文运用VEC模型构建对所取变量之间的动态关系进行研究和分析了2008年以来资阳市物价水平的基本情况与阶段特点,指出了物价指数变动与居民收入之间的动态关系。得出居民的收入与物价指数的变动并没有实质性的关系,居民的收入随着社会的发展而不断增多,而物价的变动影响因素有多样,并深入分析了这一现象的背后原因,在此基础上,提出保持物价平稳、确保收入稳定合理的政策建议。

Price is the core index in the process of economic operation,and price fluctuation is an inevitable economic phenomenon in the process of social and economic development.Price fluctuations,in particular,arc generally considered to have adverse effects on social and economic development and peopled lives,and price fluctuations arc closely related to residents5 consumption and income levels.It is of great economic and social significance to study and solve the impact of price fluctuation on residents'income for solving the related problems in the process of China's economic development.Therefore,this paper uses the VEC model to construct the dynamic relationship between the selected variables to study and analyze the basic situation and stage characteristics of the price level in Ziyang since 2008,and points out the dynamic relationship between the price index change and residents'income.It is found that there arc no substantive relations between residents'income and the change of price index,residents'income is increasing with the development of the society,and the change of price influence factors arc diverse.Accordint to the in-depth analysis of the reasons behind this phenomenon,this paper puts forward reasonable policy recommendations to keep prices stable and ensure a steady income.