基于改进事故修正系数的道路安全改善效果评价

Evaluation of Road Safety Improvement Effect Based on Improved Crash Modification Factor

为实现对事故多发路段安全改善效果的快速评价,通过改进经验贝叶斯前后对比法,提出了一种改进后的事故修正系数计算方法.为提高小数据量条件下经验贝叶斯法精准度,通过将改善措施实施前的事故数量利用分配权重系数的方法进行修正,改善措施实施后预测事故数量用前景理论进行修正,建立了新的事故修正系数计算方法.以西南某山区公路长大纵坡路段为例,证明了该安全改善措施有利于行车安全水平提高,与相关文献分析结果相符,验证了方法的可靠性.

In order to quickly evaluate the safety improvement effect of accident-prone road sections,an improved calculation method of crash modification factor(CMF)was proposed by improving the empirical Bayesian before and after comparison method.In order to improve the accuracy of empirical Bayesian method under the condition of small amount of data,the number of accidents before the implementation of improvement measures was corrected by allocating weight coefficient.After the improvement measures are implemented,the predicted number of accidents was modified by prospect theory,and a new calculation method of accident correction coefficient was established.Taking the long longitudinal slope section of a mountain highway in southwest China as an example,it is proved that the safety improvement measures are beneficial to the improvement of driving safety level,which is consistent with the analysis results of relevant literature,and shows the reliability of the method.