“碳中和”背景下中国天然气产业发展综述

Review on the development of China's natural gas industry in the background of"carbon neutrality"

中国政府在第75届联合国大会上提出:二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。该目标的确立,给中国天然气产业发展既带来了机遇也带来了挑战。为了对上述目标下的中国天然气全产业链形成综合性认识,梳理了近期相关学者的研究成果,探讨了在“碳中和”背景下我国天然气产业发展的前景。研究结果表明:①与其他低碳或无碳能源相比,我国天然气大规模稳定供应的基础最为扎实,是替代煤炭、实现“低碳化”最现实的选择;②在实现“碳中和”的过程中,天然气在不同阶段都将发挥重要的作用。进而针对我国天然气产业发展提出了建议:①天然气基础设施建设尤其是应急调峰能力建设仍需进一步加强;②市场化管容分配、两部制定价将是天然气管网运营模式的改革方向,但需要根据我国天然气产业的发展程度逐步、适时地推进;③在“碳中和”目标下,天然气发电尤其是气电调峰的发展需要引起足够的重视;④要充分抓住产业发展的机遇期、窗口期,上中下游加强合作,共同推动中国天然气产业的健康发展。

At the 75th UN General Assembly,the Chinese government declared to strive to reach peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030 and achieve"carbon neutrality"by 2060.The establishment of this goal not only brings opportunities but also challenges to the development of China's natural gas industry.In order to comprehensively understand the whole chain of China's natural gas industry under the goal of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality",this paper sorts out the recent related research results and discusses the development prospect of China's natural gas industry in the background of"carbon neutrality".And the following research results are obtained.First,compared with other low-carbon or carbon-free energies,the foundation for the large-scale stable supply of natural gas in China is the most solid,so natural gas is the most practical option to replace coal and realize"low carbon".Second,in the process of"carbon neutrality",natural gas will play an important role in different stages.Finally,several suggestions are proposed to promote the development of China's natural gas industry.First,it is necessary to further strengthen the construction of natural gas infrastructure,especially the construction of emergency peak shaving capacity.Second,market-oriented pipe capacity distribution and two-part pricing will be the reform direction of the operation mode of natural gas pipeline network,but they shall be promoted gradually and appropriately according to the development degree of China's natural gas industry.Third,under the goal of"carbon neutrality",much attention shall be paid to the development of natural gas fired power generation,especially the development of peak-shaving gas power.Fourth,it is necessary to sufficiently grasp the opportunity period and window period of industry development and strengthen cooperation among upstream,middle and downstream to jointly promote the healthy development of China's natural gas industry.