基于Mike耦合模型的城市超标准洪涝灾害影响分析

Impact Analysis of Urban Over-standard Flood Based on Mike Coupling Model

为制定大连市超标准洪水防御方案,利用Mike系列模型将一维地下排水管网模型与地表二维模型耦合,模拟分析标准内50年一遇、超标准100年一遇两种暴雨情景下研究区的洪水淹没特性。结果表明,与标准内暴雨相比,超标准暴雨下研究区充满管道数量显著增加,主要内涝积水点的空间分布基本不变,平均淹没水深由0.37m增加到0.56m;研究区低风险面积减少,高风险面积显著增加,且高风险平均淹没水深超过1m;应对超标准洪涝灾害时,常规应急抢险难以为继,应侧重于防御,重点高风险区域应提前做好人员转移、沙袋布置等防御措施,最大限度地减少人民生命财产损失。

In order to prepare for defending over-standard flood in Dalian City,dynamic coupling model between onedimensional underground drainage networks and two-dimensional urban surface was established using Mike series software.Two kinds of rainstorm scenarios,namely,standard(i.e.,50-year return period)and over-standard(i.e.,100-year return period)were selected for simulation,on this basis,the flood inundation characteristics of the study area were further analyzed.Compared with the results of standard year,the results show that there is a significant increase in the full pipelines in the study area under the over-standard rainstorm,and the spatial distribution of the main flooding points remains unchanged,and the mean submerged depth of the water increases from 0.37 m to 0.52 m over the study area;The low risk area decreases,while the high risk area has a large increase and its mean submerged depth of the water is larger than 1 m;Conventional emergency rescues are not timely and efficient when facing over-standard urban flood.The defending measures are practical and desirable,especially in high risk area,some defending measures,such as the temporary resettlement route and sandbags can be prepared in advance to minimize the loss of life and property.