基于SWAT模型的黄河源区蓝/绿水资源时空分布特征研究

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Blue and Green Water Resources in the Yellow River Source Region Based on SWAT Model

黄河源区作为黄河流域重要的产流区和水源涵养区,其水资源量的变化对实现“加强黄河治理保护和推动黄河流域高质量发展”总体目标具有重要的影响。基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型、Mann-Kendall检验和滑动t检验方法,定量分析了黄河源区1962-2017年的降水量、蓝水量、绿水量时空分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明:近56年来,黄河源区多年平均绿水量约是蓝水量的2.5倍以上。全流域内绿水量呈增加趋势,西北玛多站(1.0 mm/a)增加幅度最大;降水量、蓝水量在西北地区呈增加的趋势,东部地区和东南地区呈减少趋势;在空间上,降水量、蓝/绿水量分布总体上均呈现从西北地区向东南地区递增的趋势。降水量变化是影响流域内蓝水量时空分布差异的主要因素。流域内绿水量则同时受降水、气温影响,空间分布差异大,西北地区蒸散发量少于东南地区,东南地区的绿水量最为丰富。

The source region of the Yellow River,as an important flow producing area and water conservation area of the Yellow River basin,has an important influence on the realization of the overall goal of“strengthening the governance and protection of the Yellow River and promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin”.Based on SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model,Mann-Kendall test and sliding T-test,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and change trend of precipitation,blue water volume and green water volume in the source region of the Yellow River from 1962 to 2017 are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that in the past 56 years,the average amount of green water in the source region of the Yellow River is more than 2.5 times that of the blue water.The green water increases in the whole basin,with the largest increase at the northwestern Maduo Station(1.0 mm/a).Precipitation and blue water increases in the northwest,while decreasing in the east and southeast.In terms of spatial distribution,the distribution of precipitation and blue/green water shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast.Precipitation change is the main factor affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of blue water.However,the green water in the basin is affected by both precipitation and air temperature,and its spatial distribution is quite different.The evapotranspiration in the northwest is less than that in the southeast,and the green water in southeast is the most abundant.