基于专利和Bass模型的颠覆性技术识别方法研究

Research on identification method of disruptive technology based on patent and Bass Model

文章对现有颠覆性技术及其识别方法的研究进行了梳理,构建了一种采用专利引用信息和Bass模型对颠覆性技术进行识别和判断的新方法,并利用1976-2016年间的445条美国专利数据对太阳能光伏发电技术进行了实证分析,结果验证了薄膜电池发电是一项颠覆性技术,其技术扩散呈现典型的S型轨迹,并将在未来40年进入技术快速扩散期。本方法能够在早期对颠覆性技术进行识别,为研究人员和管理者提供决策依据和参考。

Reviewing the current studies of disruptive technology and its identification methods,we propose a new method to identify and measure disruptive technology based on patent citation and Bass model,and empirically analyze 445 USPTO patents between 1976 and 2016 within photovoltaic industry.The result shows that thin-film solar cell power generation is a disruptive technology with a typical S type trajectory,and will diffuse rapidly in the next 40 years.The operation can realize the identification of disruptive technology ex ante market success,and provide decision-making basis and reference for researchers and managers.