百年未有之大变局与人类文明的更替演进--兼及新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延加剧大变局进程

Great Changes Unseen in a Century and the Evolution of Human Civilization--Also on How the Global Spread of Covid-19 Accelerated the Great Change Process

当今世界正面临的“百年未有之大变局”,是一种影响人类文明阶段更替的全球性变化和系统性变化,其核心内容是统治世界三四百年的资本主义文明由盛转衰。以马克思主义理论对大变局的发生原因进行分析,可以发现,从西方文明的内部考察,是其经济、制度等生产关系阻碍生产力的发展,政治、文化、外交等上层建筑不适应经济基础的变化,内部矛盾致其从极端化转向走下坡路,近几年其民粹主义上升、应对新冠肺炎疫情失败及席卷全美的反种族主义浪潮,更加剧了这一趋势;从外部考察,是前落后国家利用后发优势奋起直追的结果,其中,中国依据特色制度更好地发挥了经济上的后发优势,同时利用多方面制度后发优势,奠定了社会主义经济文明基础,并在智能网络化前沿创造了替代资本主义工业文明的新型文明载体。内外两方面原因导致西方文明从绝对优势转而下滑,但仍处于相对优势地位。中国应当在明确大变局性质和趋势的前提下,积极利用其带来的机会,通过国内外双循环战略应对其可能产生的风险与挑战,最终完成中华民族复兴伟业。

The "great changes unseen in a century" facing the world today are a global and systematic change that affects the change in human civilization. Its core content is that the capitalist civilization, which has ruled the world for three or four hundred years, is changing from prosperity to decline. Analyzing the causes of the great changes with Marxist theory, we can find that: from the internal perspective of Western civilization, the production relations such as economy and system hinder the development of productive forces, the superstructure such as politics, culture and diplomacy does not adapt to changes of the economic base, the internal contradictions lead to its turning from extremist tendencies to a downhill road, and the rising populism, its failure in dealing with the Covid-19 and the anti-racism movement sweeping across the United States have intensified this trend;from the external perspective, it is the result of the former backward countries making full use of their late-starter advantage to catch up. China has been a good example in economic terms with its unique system, which has also helped China to lay the foundation of socialist economic civilization by making use of the advantage institutionally, and create a new civilization carrier to replace capitalist industrial civilization in the forefront of intelligent network. Both internal and external reasons have led the Western civilization to decline compared to its previous absolute advantage, though it is still in a relatively dominant position. On the premise of clarifying the nature and trend of the great changes, China should actively take advantage of the opportunities they bring, and deal with the possible risks and challenges through the domestic and foreign dual circulation strategy, so as to finally accomplish the great cause of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.