城中村流动人口搬迁趋向性研究--以西安市为例

A Study on Migration Tendency of Floating Population in Urban Villages:Taking the City of Xi’an as an Example

近年来,随着城中村改造的大规模推进,流动人口的安置工作已成为当前中国新型城镇化发展中迫切需要解决的重要现实问题。然而,现阶段的政策和研究多采用自上而下的视角,缺乏基于城中村居民个体行为空间选择的“理性”视角。因此,文章基于贝叶斯决策树,模拟和预测了城中村拆迁之后流动人口搬迁选择过程中的偏好、决策路径及其内在机制,发现流动人口择居的首要选择是向更外围的城中村“蛙跳式”迁徙。现阶段,由于保障房资源稀缺、配置不均、“门槛”较高、对流动人口照顾不够等因素,保障房难以替代城中村成为流动人口的下一个归宿。在此基础上,文章结合目前保障房建设及相关政策实施的状况,证明了政策偏差的存在,提出了具体的优化措施和建议。

Urban villages have become a rich habitat for the urban floating population.In recent years,with the large-scale promotion of the reconstruction of urban villages,the resettlement of the floating population in cities has become an essential issue that needs to be solved urgently in the current development of new urbanization in China.However,most policies and studies at this stage adopt a top-down perspective,lacking attention to a"rational"perspective based on individual behavior space selection of residents in villages in the city.Therefore,based on Bayesian decision analysis,this paper simulates and predicts the selection preference,decision path and internal mechanism of floating population in the process of relocation after the removal of urban villages.It is found that the first choice for the floating population to choose their residence in the urban villages is to migrate to the more peripheral urban village in"leapfrog"way.But currently,due to the scarcity of affordable housing resources,uneven allocation,high"threshold"and insufficient care for the floating population,affordable housing is difficult to replace urban villages and become the next"nest"of floating population.In this case,this paper proves the existence of policy deviation and puts forward specific optimization measures and suggestions based on the current situation of the construction of affordable housing and the implementation of relevant policies.