核电厂地震PSA中应急柴油发电机相关性分析

Correlation Analysis of Emergency Diesel Generators for Seismic PSA of Nuclear Power Plant

为弥补现有地震概率安全评价中设备相关性简化处理方法的不足,以CPR1000核电厂应急柴油发电机组为例,对不同的相关性分析方法进行了研究。采用不同方法对应急柴油发电机组联合失效的概率进行计算,得到了联合失效的易损度曲线和地震导致全厂断电事故的频率。结果证明,上述方法能比较实际地反映核电厂应急柴油发电机组相关性的影响,避免现有简化处理方法过于保守的问题。通过分析不同方法的特点和适用性,为后续核电厂地震概率安全评价中相关性的处理提出了建议。

In order to make up the deficiencies of the existing simplified method for equipment correlation analysis in seismic probabilistic safety assessment,different correlation analysis methods are studied,taking the CPR1000 nuclear power plant emergency diesel generators as an example.The joint failure probabilities of the emergency diesel generators are calculated using different correlation analysis methods,and the fragility curves of joint failure and the frequencies of station blackout accident caused by earthquake are obtained.The results prove that the above methods can reflect the impact of the correlation more realistically and avoid the problem of existing simplified method which is too conservative.By analyzing the characteristics and applicability of different methods,suggestions are proposed for the correlation analysis in seismic probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants.