摘要
Forests are major sources of energy,timber and non-timber forest products,medicinal and aromatic plants,hydrological functions,biodiversity conservation,and also fundamental sources of revenue collection to the nation.Studies indicate that forests could significantly enhance economic growth and create employment opportunities for local communities under intensive management.This paper aims to predict the contribution of the forest sector to the national economy.The economic facets of forestry considered in this paper are revenue generated from timber,non-timber forest products(NTFPs)and medicinal and aromatic plants(MAPs),and protected areas.The ARIMA model was used to forecast the economic contribution of the forestry sector.The study found that the total revenue generated from the selling of timber and fuelwood(USD 50.19 million)was higher than the total revenue collected from protected areas(USD 37.58 million)and NTFPs/MAPs(USD 6.9 million)in the past 15 years.The model projected that the mean revenue for the timber and fuelwood sale will USD 3.5 million for the next ten years.Similarly,the mean revenue will be generated about USD 0.5 million and USD 6.2 million from NTFPs/MAPs and protected areas,respectively,for the next ten years.The study limits to take account the in-kind use of forest products such as timber,fodder,fuelwood,etc.,as used by community people within a forest users’groups.Thus,practicing sustainable forest management,enabling policy documents,establishing forest-based industries,establishing forestry nurseries,conducting agroforestry practices,and tenure security could enhance the forestry sector’s economic aspects.
森林是能源、木材和非木材林产品、药用和芳香植物、水文功能、生物多样性保护的主要载体,也是国家税收的基本来源之一。研究表明,森林可以极大促进经济增长,并在集约化管理下为当地社区创造就业机会。本文旨在预测森林部门对国民经济的贡献。本文研究的林业经济主要是指木材(timber)、非木材林产品(NTFP)、药用和芳香植物(MAP)以及保护区产生的收益。ARIMA模型可用于预测林业部门的经济贡献。研究发现,在过去15年中,木材/薪材销售的总收入(5019万美元)高于保护区(3758万美元)和非木材林产品的收入(690万美元)。该模型预计,未来十年木材和薪材销售的平均收入将为350万美元/年。同样,在未来十年中,NTFPs/MAPs和保护区的平均收入将分别为约50万美元/年和620万美元/年。因此,实践可持续的森林管理,建立林业苗圃,实施农林业实践以及明晰林业权属,建立以森林为基础的产业,可以改善林业部门的经济状况。
