美国股市的下调风险和溢出效应

The Risk of Downward Adjustments and Spillover Effects in the US Stock Market

本文阐述了盈利增长、股票回购和宽松流动性构成美股上涨的三大动能,回顾历史两次股灾经验并结合美国经济基本面、货币政策和市场结构分析美股未来一段时间内的下调风险,并对其在金融市场的溢出效应进行分析。整体来看,美国经济复苏路径曲折,美股2021年有望持续受益于宽松的货币政策,资产价格大幅回调风险不高。对于前所未有的量化宽松后的美股回调风险,市场没有充分的应对经验,全球金融市场面临挑战。

This article examines the three major drivers of US stock gains: earnings growth, stock repurchases and loose liquidity. It reviews the experience of two stock market crashes of the past and analyzes the possible effects of downward adjustments in US stocks in the future based on the fundamentals of the US economy, monetary policy and market structure. The article also assesses existing risks and analyzes potential spillover effects in the financial market. Overall, the US economic recovery has undergone a series of twists and turns. US stocks are expected to continue to benefit from loose monetary policy in the near term, and the risk of a sharp correction in asset prices is not high. But the market does not have sufficient experience to deal with the risk of a US stock correction after quantitative easing is withdrawn. At the same time the global financial market is facing challenges.