中亚经济30年:从转型到发展

The Economy of Central Asia over the Past Thirty Years:From Transition to Growth

中亚国家独立后经历了从寻求经济转型到谋求经济发展的过程。进入21世纪,转型叙事逐渐淡出中亚国家经济研究视野,但多数国家的经济改革进程仍在继续。经过30年发展,中亚各国不同程度地实现了经济增长,但各国经济结构没有发生明显变化。转型、增长与发展之间的关系存在悖论。在中亚五国中,资源型国家经济增长速度较快,劳务输出型国家的经济较为困难;自由化程度越高的国家,经济发展水平越不能令人满意;各国经济呈现明显的资源依赖型特征。中亚国家要实现经济快速发展,就要在强有力的政府的领导下,坚持市场经济选择,改善治理质量,继续改革经济管理体制,对外部世界敞开大门,通过有效的制度安排和政策调整实现资源的合理配置,从而实现经济发展目标。

The majority of Central Asian countries have been pushing through their reforms despite the fact that their paths of economic transition capture much less attention of scholars nowadays.Over the past thirty years,the economic structure of these countries remained basically intact,albeit economic growth has been achieved at different paces and hence a paradox can be inferred between transition,growth and development.The region manifests a feature of resource dependency and rapid growth has taken place in resource-rich countries while labor-exporting ones have been afflicted by economic difficulties.In addition,the economic development is negatively correlated with the level of liberalization.It is advisable for the countries to bolster their economic growth by persisting in the model of market economy,improving governance,reforming the system for economic administration,opening up to the outside world,allocating resources rationally by means of efficient institutional arrangements and policy adjustments under the leadership of strong governments.